Thursday, 15 May 2014

Modi has The qualification, The Ability To Be PM


Now the waiting time is too near and we will find our New PM

With Gujarat not being scalable to the rest of India, what options does the BJP have to capture power?
If the BJP is to be the main player in a winning coalition, the BJP needs a degree of emotive polarisation. However, that by itself is useless without an alliance with other Middle Caste leaders. That is the basic reason why we find ourselves in an era of coalition politics.
The BJP just cannot win on its own steam given the rival Congress's strategy of polarisation along caste lines.India is locked into divisive politics of one sort or the other.
If the Gujarat model is not scalable, what are Modi's chances of leading the assault on Delhi?
Nitish Kumar, and other Middle Caste leaders like him, will find Modi's creation of a cult around himself too hard to swallow.
Furthermore, aligning with Modi's hard Hindutva will lose them the critical Muslim vote on which they depend to keep the Congress at bay.
Given the Congress strategy of coalition-building, the BJP will have to find leaders acceptable to its potential coalition partners in order to win.
And Modi, with his near contemptuous disdain for minorities, together with his strenuous efforts to build a personality cult, has more or less ruled himself out of the game.
Can a softer, more balanced narrative rehabilitate Modi after his power struggle within the Sangh Parivar is settled in his favour?
Modi faces stiff competition from a gaggle of BJP national leaders but few of them have his electoral reach or access to corporate war chests. The latter is critical in the BJP because central leaders have no separate access to resources that are needed to reward corporate generosity. Their funding comes entirely from regional satraps like Modi.
Furthermore, it is not clear that the Brahmins of Nagpur are ready to surrender their vast cultural organisation to a Middle Caste leader like Modi. Note that the BJP has no organisational muscle of its own. It depends more or less entirely on the cultural reach of the RSS and its cadres to pull in voters.
The RSS is the political party of cadres and the BJP the political party of leaders. The latter is nothing without the former.
Modi has supplanted BJP/RSS cadres with his own people in Gujarat. Will the Brahmins of Nagpur risk losing their only crown jewel to a relative outsider? This is not a question to be taken lightly.
Whatever be its merits or demerits, the RSS remains one of the most potent political organisations in India.
Much of Modi's obduracy towards minorities is predicated on his need to win the battle for supremacy within the Sangh Parivar. As a shrewd politician with an eye on Delhi's throne, he would have made the appropriate noises of remorse and regret for 2002 long before this, but for the need to keep his firebrand supporters by his side.
Modi needs to win over either the RSS or his rivals in Delhi to emerge as the undisputed leader within the Sangh Parivar. Without one or the other, he cannot win.
This triangular contest is what constrains Modi's emergence as a national leader in his own right.
Modi has various other options open to him, one of which is to be less aggressive and perhaps join the collegium of BJP leaders in Delhi and become a team player and bide his time.
Provided he mellows down, the BJP could then use him as the polarising factor to lead the Hindutva charge for power.
If Modi were to consent to play L K Advani to a more acceptable BJP leader as Atal Bihari Vajpayee, he would give the BJP the chance it needs to build a winning coalition with Middle Caste leaders.

Is Modi really larger than his image? If you find him retaining his chief minister's post in Gujarat and consenting to work for the greater good of his party, you will have your answer.

No comments:

Post a Comment